Americas, Special Report, Travel

[AprpdlNuh]

Bayes' theorem," Waller tells us, "defines how the proportions of people tested who are sick and healthy change the probability of a positive test given a healthy person to the probability of a healthy person given a positive test. This school of thought has had its share of critics over the years. Yet history's shown there's a place for Bayesian thought. As Wiggins points out, mathematicians now use different computing tools - and look for different kinds of data - than prior generations did. In our computer-driven culture, Bayesian methods are all around us. Consider electronic mail. Some email filters use Bayes' Theorem to calculate the odds that an individual message is unwanted spam given its word choices. Or look at how the U.S. Coast Guard made waves in 2014 when one of its computer programs led to the rescue of a fisherman who'd gone missing. As you may have guessed, that program got the job done with Bayes' theorem. HowStuffWorks may earn a small commission from affiliate links in this article. Like Thomas Bayes, Richard Price was a practicing minister, and a well-connected one at that. He personally met with the likes of Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Thomas Paine. Also, Mary Wollstonecraft - a groundbreaking feminist and the mother of "Frankenstein" creator Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley - was one of his mentees.




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